Foreseeing IPv6 deployment

This is part of my series on (trying to) foresee IPv6 deployment.

It is difficult to predict how IPv6 will first take off, who will be first, who will be second and why. These are the next few months or years. However, it is much easier to say when the big switch will occur, how and why.

This will be between mid-2012 and mid-2014.

What will happen then ? The ISP's IPv4 pools will be dry, with no hope to refill them, so they will activate their new customers using IPv6.

This is part of my series on (Trying to) foresee IPv6 deployment.

Can we identify populations of IPv6 users such as IPv6 adoption logically follows from one population to the next ?

[*]poule = the french for chicken, and IPv6 is a chicken-and-egg problem, like the introduction of many new technologies where you need several components for the cocktail to ignite.

IPv6 has no business case, except business continuity. There are additional costs, and no additional revenues.

This is part of my series on (Trying to) foresee IPv6 deployment.

The Chinese student doing Skype with her family is my paradigm for the first step in IPv6 propagation: getting pressure from China to student-gathering countries.

I do think that exhaustion, in the sense of the first machines with only IPv6 because-there-is-no-other-choice, will be the customer of some Chinese ISP in the coming months or weeks.

This is part of my series on (Trying to) foresee IPv6 deployment.

[Citation needed here] said that important content will still be available over IPv4 for many years. Well, in my opinion, it depends of what you call important. Certainly, gmail, facebook and their likes will be able to maintain their content available on the IPv4 cloud, based on the stocks of IPv4 addresses they already hold. In my opinion however, this leaves aside two classes of "important" content:

• The next Facebook, or Google, or Youtube.

This is part of my series on (Trying to) foresee IPv6 deployment.

Google is doing a lot of things for IPv6 adoption with its IPv6 program. First, it brings credibility to IPv6. When Google talks, the world listens.